War of aggression, war which does not imply defense of one’s country, is a collective crime. — Carlos Saavedra Lamas
War is won in the factories and in the spirit world. Russia will retain an advantage in 2024, and increased European production will turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor by 2025
I promised Russia this defeat before. I hereby renew my promise. Russia is further away from achieving its goals than they were one year ago.
The Russian regime and a large part of the Russian public have fallen victim to the deadly delusion that Russia can’t lose, just because it is Russia.
This infantile and magical political thinking has already cost hundreds of thousand Russian men their lives
This cognitive dissonance stems from hubris and a pathetic sense of self-worth brought about by the “Great Patriotic War.” I will not disparage the great effort put forth by the CCCP.
Let us not forget the 11 billion USD of Lend Lease that was provided to the CCCP
The roles are reversed. Russia is on the receiving end. In this aspect, the Russo-Ukraine war is a mirror image of World War 2. Who is staring back at Russia from that mirror. The winner? Or the loser?
Attack is the secret of defense; defense is the planning of an attack. — Sun Tzu
In 2024, Russia will retain an advantage in ammunition production and weapon stockpiles
By 2025, the pendulum will swing in Ukraine’s favor. Russian stockpiles are shrinking. The remaining weapons and ammo stockpiles are diminishing in quantity and quality.
Two people can look at the same facts and see someone else winning. One metric for victory is how much time and resources each party has to use up to achieve its political goals.
“Democracy takes time, but once all the wheels are in motion, it is hard to stop. History has shown that ultimately democracies have always prevailed against dictatorships.” YT, good times bad times
- Historical background knowledge
Russia attacked at a time and place of its choosing. The invasion fails to yield tangible results
This failure is unparalleled in the long history of European warfare. The Austrian empire managed to defeat Serbia after 18 months. That may be the closest comparison to Russia’s abject failure.
The Russians missed the age of fealty. The Renaissance and most of the Enlightenment era. The geopolitical relevance of Muscovy and Russia’s Tsardom was marginal up until the early 18th century
The Russian empire didn’t exist on a map prior to 1720. Peter the Great established Russia as an equal among the great powers of Europe.
The performance of the Russian army against Napoleon in 1812–14 was formidable. However, the army Russia fields today can’t be compared to this army, neither in force quality, logistics or command, and control.
Russia’s modern-day forces are wildly incompetent.
Historically, Russia’s troops have fared better in asymmetric insurgency warfare. Russia’s performance against Poland, in the Crimean War, Japan, or during WW1, was not impressive.
The Soviet-Afghan war and the first Chechen war made it apparent that Russia struggles with the insurgency phase almost as much as with the combat face.
Systemic alcohol abuse, corruption, and physical violence as punishment are commonplace in the Russian army
Putin has recruited tens of thousands of badly led, badly supplied, and badly trained alcoholics, serfs, mercenaries, and criminals to fight this war.
Russia’s abysmal performance. Its undisciplined barbarism against civilians is shameful and embarrassing
Russia hasn’t faced a properly trained European army for several generations. After two years, one can ascertain that Russia was ill-prepared for an industrial war of this scale.
Russia has fared better against poorly equipped insurgents
Ukrainian descendants of Cossacks and Vikings are equipped by a coalition of over 50 nations. Russia lacks any idea how to defeat Ukraine in battle. In their rage, Putin’s troops resort to terror and atrocities.
Ukraine is the largest force the West has trained and equipped since WW2
The resources and time Russia had to expend to take Avdiivka show that its maximalist goals of defeating NATO and occupying all of Ukraine are delusional. With Sweden joining NATO, Russia’s goals have become even more impossible to achieve.
The occupation of the entirety or half of Ukraine is their goal
Russia’s woes will worsen. Europe is realizing that the Russian threat is systemic. This threat must be rooted out at the stem. Ukraine has been suffering for over ten years under Russia’s army.
As many sources have reported over the course of this conflict. Russia’s forces display a great talent for cruelty, profanity, lies, murder, abuse of POWs, deception, a disregard for human life, genocide, child abduction, corruption, hazing and alcohol abuse.
Honestly, no major power or smaller power in Europe knows what to do with a victorious or defeated Russia
Russia may end up as China’s resource vassal. Russia has been the odd one out among the empires since 1917. Back then, Tsarist Russia was not so different from the other European empires. In 2024, Russia’s empire has become the longest autocratic experiment in human history.
The relationship between the EU, the UK, and Russia is more hostile than ever before
Even on the eve of World War 2, Stalin’s relationship with Europe was a lot better than it is today. Even when the Soviet Union signed the Molotov Ribbentrop pact to ally with Nazi Germany, Stalin was far from isolated.
Communist ideology had more soft power projection than Russia’s fascist, empty, and nihilistic imperial project. Russia’s barbaric policies are met with condemnation and indignation by the West.
The Soviet Army was equipped with top military gear of its time
The Red Army was motivated by a higher goal. Stalinist Russia was threatened in its very existence. The Soviet army is not comparable to the undisciplined mob Russia fields today.
The losses in World War II were on another scale. The Wehrmacht lost 4.3 million men. The Soviet force lost over 8.7 million soldiers and 24 to 27 million people in total
The largest portion of those, 5.7 million, were ethnic Russians and 1.3 million ethnic Ukrainians. In total, a quarter of all people in the Soviet Union were either wounded or killed.
Roughly 68 percent of all Soviet males born in 1923 were dead by 1945
The Russian demographic is haunted by these losses. Russia liked to ignore the fact that Finland had embarrassed the mighty Soviet army. Without US support. Nazi Germany would have likely delivered the killing blow to the Soviet empire.
“Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics” Gen. Omar Bradley
The losses in manpower are less relevant in modern-day industrial warfare. Money, military production, logistics, superior technology, resupply of food, and medicine wins a war of attrition.
Stalin admitted that without US help, the Soviet army would have lost the war
“I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war,” Stalin said. “The most important things in this war are the machines…. The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war.” Stalin
Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion in his autobiography. “If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war.”
Russia’s history of warfare indicates that they are incredibly bad at winning them. Two of these failed wars of expansion precipitated Russia’s socio-economic collapse. The war economy will bankrupt Russia once more.
2) Geo-politics and military production
Putin’s policies may cause the dissolution of the Russian empire
The empire must be amputated from Russia like a malignant cancer. Russia’s barbaric venture must end in failure.
“Europe will be at Ukraine’s side for every single day of the war, and for every single day thereafter. Putin can’t understand freedom and why we fight for it because his only instinct is to crush what he fears.” Urusula von der Leyen
We have no reason to despair. The only constant in history is change. Dictatorial and oppressive systems carry the seed of their own destruction within them.
Dictators often take their realm with them when they are no more
Moral vigor is recovering in Europe. The West is rearming at ever hastening speed. Life will triumph over this death cult and Putin’s hatred. The ever increasing necessity of more violence in a fascist state and constant agitation seeds its downfall.
Russia’s empire doesn’t act out of character. Using force to expand has been the Russian way for hundreds of years
History is full of technologically and socio-economically backward empires, which are using force to steal technology, people, and resources from others.
The Russian state is neither an economic nor a military behemoth
Our democratic societies face many challenges. Russia’s system is broken far worse than ours. Ultimately, those who can adapt better to ever-changing circumstances will prevail.
Who would have known in 1942 that 3 years later, the Nazi regime would be broken and defeated?
Dictatorships want freedom only for themselves while its people shall remain enslaved.
Russia limits freedom of information, movement, and the choice in jobs and living conditions. Disrupting the flow of information is the regime’s greatest weakness and its greatest strength.
Let’s concentrate on our strengths less on Russia’s many weaknesses
Estonian intelligence estimates that Ukraine must cause roughly 50k casualties per 6 months to keep the Russian army from replenishing its reserves. UK intelligence stated, Russia took more casualties in February than in any other month of the war. Almost 1000 per day.
Both the scale of casualties and military production expand over time. Ukraine will receive a lot more 155 mm, 122 mm, and 152 mm shells
The current US production 40.000 to 50.000 per month. Expected to double by the end of 2025. Kofman and Gaedy state that Ukraine will need 250.000 rounds per month for a major counter offensive and 70.000 to 90.000 rounds for an effective defense.
“The annual production of shells in the EU is 850.000. It is gaining industrial scale and growing” Polish foreign Minister Sikorski
Large quantities will arrive in the next couple of weeks. This includes 800k shells from a Czech initiative. This initiative will deliver 300k 155 mm, 500k 152 mm shells. Ukraine will receive 1.5 million artillery shells in total from its European allies this year.
Additionally, several hundred thousand 122 mm mortar shells will be delivered by Bulgaria, Germany, and others
Europe will provide 1.5 million rounds in 2024. By the end of 2025, production in Europe will ramp up its yearly production to over 2 million 155 mm shells. Germany invests in a 200 million euro production facility that will go online next year.
The USA will increase its own yearly production to roughly 1.5 million 155 mm rounds by the end of 2025
CNN says that Russia outproduces the US and Europe. CNN takes the upper ceiling from this RUSI report and throws Russia’s 122 mm and 152 mm together.
RU total output is compared to our 155 mm production. The 122 mm and 152 mm shells are ignored
Russia produces 1.8 million 152 mm shells. Australia or South Korea aren’t considered in these calculations.
Ukraine’s own production is expanding
Rheinmetall is close to serial production of tanks and armored vehicles inside Ukraine. CEO Papperger outlined that once the contracts are signed, the first “Fox” armored vehicle will be produced within six or seven months, and the first Lynx within 12–13 months.”
The Pentagon prepares to release 4 billion dollars in Presidential drawdown authority
Washington sanctions Russia, shares intelligence and continues to oppose Russia in other ways. A discharge petition might finally get Mike Johnson to bring the aid for Ukraine to a vote.
The European war machine will scale up massively by 2025
Russia’s stockpiles are shrinking. Ever older and less sophisticated materiel is pulled from storage. Europe is finally awakening. This isn’t just Ukraine’s war. This is Europe’s war.
Ukraine – and Europe – have shown that we are willing to fight and pay the ultimate price for the things that we believe in. UVD
Summary and Conclusion
The Russians aren’t invincible. The bear is bleeding. The last mile of this marathon might be closer than Russia would want anyone to know.
Let’s not create self-fulfilling prophecies. The situation is dire, but it’s far from hopeless
Our quarrel should be with the Russian regime. Not with the Russian welder or baker.
Generally, there is no difficulty in having cordial relations between the peoples of Russia and Europe. My heart goes out to them. But, they have no power.
This fascist power spurns our Western ethics. Russia cheers its onward course of barbarous paganism
This fascist regime vaunts the spirit of aggression and conquest. It derives perverted pleasure from murder and persecution.
Between the present Russian government and Western democracies there will never be friendship
The Russian regime uses pitiless brutality and murderous force to achieve its goals. Such a power cannot ever be a trusted friend of any free democratic nation.
“What one generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace,” Jon Weasly
Our children and grandchildren will judge the moral and ethical quality of our decisions. Failure is not an option.
“If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you he will not. Ukraine can stop Putin. If we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons, it needs to defend itself.
Bowing down to a Russian leader. That is outrageous, dangerous, and unacceptable. I see a future that is defending democracy and not diminishing it.” President Joe Biden, State of the Union, 2023
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Take care and be well.
“Russiae Imperium delendum est”
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