Earlier today, a suicide drone rammed into a MI-8 helicopter parked in the pro-Russian territory of Transnistria. There were no casualties, and responsibility for the attack is still unknown. What we do know is that the drone was launched from Odessa.
Of course, the excuses are now rolling in for this blatant act of aggression, the most prominent of which is that the helicopter doesn’t work anyway. As if that voids the relevance of the attack. My neighbor’s vintage car doesn’t work, may as well go smash it.
The attack comes at a time where Transnistria is very much in the spotlight. On February 28th, Transnistria formally requested Russian protection against Moldova and Ukraine. There is a large ammo depot there which they fear could be targeted by the Ukrainians or taken over by the Moldovans.
There was word on the same day that Moldova started to mobilize their military forces in response. It looked like there was going to be military action against the breakaway republic, but that had not happened, at least until today.
Now the question is whether or not the Transnistrian government will treat this as an actual attack on them by the Ukrainians. I personally do not think they will, given that they only lost one broken helicopter and there were no casualties.
However, I don’t see these kinds of attacks stopping. This sounds like something that starts off small but increases in scale every time. If the Ukrainians continue to take action against Transnistria, I could see them actively entering the war.
You may laugh, but Transnistria has a military, a small one, but a military nonetheless. The last estimates of the size is 16000. Not enough to launch an invasion of Ukraine, but enough to cause the Ukrainians headaches if an engagement were to commence.
Of course, if hostilities were to break out, the Moldovans would most likely be the ones responsible for restoring order to the breakaway republic, which would risk dragging NATO into a direct engagement with pro-Russian forces and potentially Russia itself.
Transnistria is one of those places that neither side can really do anything about. The Ukrainians cannot afford another front, and the Russians would have a hard time supplying the Transnistrians from so far away.
As a result, Transnistria has been kept in a sort of limbo for the past few decades. I suppose the plan is for Russia to take much of southern Ukraine so it can connect to the Transnistrians in the future. That would be the most logical conclusion.
Transnistria could also serve as a potential launch platform for Russian drones, which would have an easier time striking the west of the country. This way they wouldn’t have to come from the east.
There was an instance a couple weeks ago where it looked like the Russians started launching drones from Transnistria, but it was apparently a false alarm.
For now, all we must do is wait to see what the conclusion of the investigation is, and how Transnistria will respond if they feel the need to do so.
I do not believe that Transnistria will be used as a front. It is too risky for Russia to use them given their small population and even smaller military force.
I believe that the next front will open in the north, from Belarus. This will be like the early days of the war, but with much more preparation and manpower. The Russians have already moved their tactical nuclear weapons into the country.
I see this as insurance against NATO moving against Belarus should a new front be opened. Lukashenko is much less forgiving than Putin is when it comes to attacks on his territory by NATO backed forces.
The other reason I believe that the next front will come from Belarus is because Wagner has been training the Belarusian Military for months now. Wagner had been Russia’s most effective fighting force in the east, for them to be training the Belarusians means they are exchanging experience.
Why would they be exchanging experience if Russia was not planning on utilizing Belarus against the Ukrainians in the near future? Maybe they could be training them for defensive purposes against NATO, but they already have the tactical nuclear weapons for that.
As of right now, the current strategy by the Russians appears to be having the Ukrainians smash themselves against Russian defenses while running out of ammo and equipment.
Once the Russians have concluded that the Ukrainians no longer have enough resources to sustain the war effort, I believe that is when the offensive and new fronts will emerge.
People in the West have long made fun of the Russians for what looks like a stalemate in the east of the country, but I think that is foolish behavior. They have better supply lines, logistics, and production than Ukraine. All they have to do is dig in and wait.
The NATO countries, for all their supposed genius, have failed to even consider this strategy. Or if they have, they have refused to tell Ukraine about it. Instead, they have opted to use the Ukrainians as a meat shield for the rest of Europe.
For the rest of us who are not privy to these government level discussions, we will just have to watch and wait. Given how the Transnistrians haven’t given out a response to the events of earlier today, I do not believe there will be serious repercussions to this.
